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From Seeking AlphaAlthough sugar's still way off its record high of 66 cents/lb (set back in 1974), the commodity is still up 88% year-to-date.
The rise has been spectacular, but some analysts think sugar's future looks even sweeter. Take Jim Rogers, who told Bloomberg earlier this month that "sugar is certainly going to go much, much higher during the course of the bull market."
Investors seeking an exchange-traded play on sugar can check out the futures-based iPath Dow Jones AIG Sugar Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE Arca: SGG). Year-to-date, SGG is up 62%, and lately has been one of the better performers in our Breakfast Index.
Other sugar-related (although more broadly based) exchange-traded vehicles include the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE Arca: DBA), which tracks futures in corn, soybeans, wheat and sugar; and the ELEMENTS Rogers International Commodity Agriculture ETN (NYSE Arca: RJA), which tracks 20 futures contracts worldwide.
Soleil sees potash prices set to skid, from Vancouver Sun
Soleil Securities said on Friday that potash prices were set to skid about 25 percent, noting that Agrium Inc AGU.TO said late on Thursday that it cut U.S. potash pricing. Soleil analyst Mark Gulley said Agrium is dropping its U.S. list prices around 25 percent, in line with price cuts by Russia’s Silvinit SILV.RTRS and Germany’s K+S SDFG.DE.
The Omnivore’s Delusion: Against the Agri-intellectuals, from The American
I’m so tired of people who wouldn’t visit a doctor who used a stethoscope instead of an MRI demanding that farmers like me use 1930s technology to raise food. Farming has always been messy and painful, and bloody and dirty. It still is.
But now we have to listen to self-appointed experts on airplanes frightening their seatmates about the profession I have practiced for more than 30 years. I’d had enough. I turned around and politely told the lecturer that he ought not believe everything he reads. He quieted and asked me what kind of farming I do. I told him, and when he asked if I used organic farming, I said no, and left it at that. I didn’t answer with the first thought that came to mind, which is simply this: I deal in the real world, not superstitions, and unless the consumer absolutely forces my hand, I am about as likely to adopt organic methods as the Wall Street Journal is to publish their next edition by setting the type by hand.
Jim Rogers Says U.S. Commodity Curbs to Drive Markets Overseas, from Bloomberg
As the U.S. contemplates tighter regulation, China’s interest in commodities is accelerating, Rogers said. The world’s most populous country already accounts for about one- third of global copper usage. It also accounts for about one- sixth of wheat demand and one-fifth of soybeans, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
“The three commodity exchanges in China are booming,” he said. “Dalian trades more soybean contracts than Chicago does already, and that’s with a blocked currency, a closed market. Can you imagine what’s going to happen if and when they open that market up to foreigners? It’s going to explode.”
Sugar Climbs to 28-Year High in N.Y. on India Weather Outlook, from Bloomberg
Sugar climbed to the highest price in more than 28 years in New York on concerns that low monsoon rainfall may stunt cane crops and reduce output in India, the world’s largest producer after Brazil.
“Subdued rainfall activity is likely to continue over western, central and peninsular parts of the country” in the next two to three days, the India Meteorological Department said today. Precipitation in India, the world’s largest sugar consumer, was 64 percent below the long-term average in the week ended Aug. 5, the weather bureau said yesterday.
“Concerns over poor supply and strong imports in India have been a major driver of recent price strength, and further fuel for the rally today came from forecasts by the Indian weather office for weak rains in most cane regions,” London- based Barclays Capital said in a report.
more on sugar from the FT.
Inflation-wary investors have lately kept a close eye on the rising price of hydrocarbons: oil has risen by a third this year. But carbohydrates are what they should be worried about. Shortages have pushed up raw sugar futures 65 per cent since January. On Thursday, prices broke through 19.75 cents a pound, reaching levels last seen in 1981. Refined white sugar is at a record high. Next year could see bigger price spikes.
Weather is the main reason. Drought in India, the world’s biggest consumer, has hit local harvests. Heavy rain in Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, has wrought the same effect. Ominously, such weather patterns are typical of El Niño, the seasonal warming of the Pacific that can cause volatility across a wide range of commodities.
From Bloomberg. White sugar rose to its highest since at least 1989 in London on analysts’ forecasts for a global supply shortfall after lighter-than-expected monsoon rains in India, the second-biggest producer.
Monsoon rainfall was 18 percent lower than usual in the week to July 29, according to the country’s weather office. Deficient rain in July last year reduced cane yields, causing sugar output to halve and turning India into a net buyer for the first time since the 2005-06 season.
“Momentum is strong,” Eugen Weinberg, an analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by phone. “Fundamentally, the market is in short supply and prices will be supported.”
White, or refined, sugar for October delivery surged $11.10, or 2.3 percent, to close at $502.90 a metric ton on Liffe, the highest since at least January 1989
